Posts Tagged: workforce
Immigration projected to drive growth in U.S. working-age population through at least 2035
For most of the past half-century, adults in the U.S. Baby Boom generation – those born after World War II and before 1965 – have been the main driver of the nation's expanding workforce. But as this large generation heads into retirement, the increase in the potential labor force will slow markedly, and immigrants will play the primary role in the future growth of the working-age population (though they will remain a minority of it).
The number of adults in the prime working ages of 25 to 64 – 173.2 million in 2015 – will rise to 183.2 million in 2035, according to Pew Research Center projections. That total growth of 10 million over two decades will be lower than the total in any single decade since the Baby Boomers began pouring into the workforce in the 1960s. The growth rate of working-age adults will also be markedly reduced.
The largest segment of working-age adults – those born in the U.S. whose parents also were born in the U.S. – is projected to decline from 2015 to 2035, both in numbers and as a share of the working-age population. The Center's projections show a reduction of 8.2 million of these adults, from 128.3 million in 2015 to 120.1 million in 2035.
That numerical loss will be partially offset by an increase in the number of working-age U.S.-born adults with immigrant parents, who are projected to number 24.6 million in 2035, up from 11.1 million in 2015. But perhaps the most important component of the growth in the working-age population over the next two decades will be the arrival of future immigrants. The number of working-age immigrants is projected to increase from 33.9 million in 2015 to 38.5 million by 2035, with new immigrant arrivals accounting for all of that gain. (The number of current immigrants of working age is projected to decline as some will turn 65, while others are projected to leave the country or die.) Without these new arrivals, the number of immigrants of working age would decline by 17.6 million by 2035, as would the total projected U.S. working-age population, which would fall to 165.6 million.
The Pew Research Center projections for foreign-born working-age adults are based on current rates of immigration, combining lawful and unauthorized. They assume that two-thirds of immigrants arriving through 2035 will be ages 25 to 64, as is true of today's new immigrants. The declining number of U.S.-born working-age adults with U.S.-born parents means that they will become a smaller share of the working-age population: 66% in 2035, compared with 74% in 2015. U.S.-born children of immigrants will make up a growing share of working-age adults: 13% in 2035, compared with 6% in 2015. The immigrant share of working-age adults will inch up, from 20% in 2015 to 21% in 2035.
Change by immigrant generation
The decrease in working-age adults born in the U.S. whose parents also were born in the U.S. largely reflects the aging of the Baby Boom generation, born from 1946 to 1964. The youngest Boomers turn 65 by 2030 (of course, some Baby Boomers are immigrants or have immigrant parents, but the share is smaller than among younger Americans). Birth rates, which have stayed relatively low since the 1970s, also play a role.
The largest group joining the nation's working-age population will be the 60 million people who were born in the country to U.S.-born parents and turn 25 between 2015 and 2035. But they will be outnumbered by U.S.-born adults with U.S.-born parents who turn 65 or who die, according to the projections, and so this group will have a net loss in number.
There will also be 18 million U.S.-born people with immigrant parents who will join the working-age population from 2015 to 2035. This group already lives in the U.S.; they were ages 5 to 24 in 2015. They will outnumber the working-age adults in this group who turn 65 or die over the next two decades, resulting in a net gain of 13.6 million working-age adults who are U.S. born with immigrant parents.
The projections indicate that 17.6 million new immigrants will be added to the working-age population by 2035, offsetting the aging or death of other working-age immigrants. Without them, the number of working-age immigrants would decline by 2035 and the total U.S. working-age population would drop by almost 8 million (or more than 4%) from the 2015 working-age population.
Growth rates and immigration's role
The relatively weak growth rate projected for the total working-age adult population – averaging 0.3% per year for both the decades between 2015 and 2035 – is well under the increases in recent decades. The annual growth peaked at 2% in the decade from 1975 to 1985, when the Baby Boomers were coming of age, and growth rates were at least 0.8% in all other decades since 1965.
In recent decades, immigration to the U.S. has become an increasing source of growth for the working-age population. It was a negligible source of growth in the 1960s but grew in importance after the 1965 immigration law opened visa eligibility to people from a wider variety of nations than the traditional European countries of origin. By the mid-1990s, immigration had surpassed growth in the number of U.S.-born adults with U.S.-born parents as a source of the increase in the nation's potential labor force.
These projections, which are based on analysis of census data trends, focus on the working-age population, defined as ages 25 to 64. They exclude young adults, many of whom are enrolled in training programs or higher education, as well as adults ages 65 and older, most of whom are not working. However, the patterns are similar if the age range includes those as young as 18 or as old as 69.
These projections do not look at the future labor force – that is, how many people in each of these groups will be employed or looking for work. Labor-force participation differs by gender and generation. Currently, foreign-born men are somewhat more likely to work than all U.S.-born men (including those with immigrant parents and U.S.-born parents), but foreign-born women are somewhat less likely to work than U.S.-born women, in part because many are staying home to raise children.
Immigrants also play a large role in future U.S. population growth. Assuming current trends continue, future immigrants and their U.S.-born children will account for 88% of the nation's population growth between 2015 and 2065, according to Pew Research Center projections.
Source: Published originally on PewResearchCenter Immigration projected to drive growth in U.S. working-age population through at least 2035, by Jeffrey S. Passel and D'VeraCohn, March 7, 2017.
/span>Americans less concerned than a decade ago over immigrants’ impact on workforce
Americans' views about the impact the growing number of immigrants working in the U.S. is having on American workers have softened notably over the past decade, according to a new Pew Research Center survey, conducted in association with the Markle Foundation.
The overall population is almost evenly split on whether growing numbers of immigrant workers help or hurt U.S. workers overall: 45% say having more immigrant workers hurts Americans and 42% say this trend helps U.S. workers. (The survey referred to immigrants in general and did not specify whether they were legally permitted or undocumented.)
These attitudes have changed significantly since a 2006 Pew Research Center survey, which found that 55% of Americans believed that the presence of more immigrant workers hurt U.S. laborers. That figure has since decreased by 10 percentage points.
Additionally, the share of Americans who thought a decade ago that the growing number of immigrants helped workers was 28%, marking a 14-point increase in that positive view.
There is a far wider partisan divide on this question – one that has been hotly debated during the 2016 campaign – than there was 10 years ago. The new poll shows that since 2006, Democrats have moved substantially in the direction of seeing immigrant workers as a plus when it comes to their effect on American worker: Today, about six-in-ten (58%) say that having more immigrant workers helps U.S. jobholders, up from just 30% who said this in 2006. Over the same time period, Republican opinion has shifted slightly in the opposite direction: Among adults who identify with the GOP, 54% now believe that the growing number of immigrant workers hurts American workers (a 6-point increase since 2006).
Other groups who have come to see immigrant workers more positively include those with less than a high school education, those in households earning less than $30,000 and blacks.
Overall, when Americans are asked what hurts American workers, the top answers are outsourcing jobs to other countries (80% of Americans think this hurts U.S. jobholders), more foreign-made products being sold in the U.S. (77% think this hurts), increased use of contract or temporary employees (57%), automation of jobs (50%) and the decline in union membership (49%).
While there are partisan differences over immigration in this election campaign, fairly strong majorities of Americans have positive views about immigrants, including those who are unauthorized.
An August poll by Pew Research Center showed that 71% of Americans said undocumented immigrants mostly fill jobs that U.S. citizens do not want, while 24% said such immigrants mostly fill jobs citizens would like. And a large majority of adults (76%) said that undocumented immigrants are as honest and hardworking as U.S. citizens.
The U.S. has 44 million immigrants, more than any other country, that together make up 13.6% of the U.S. population. Three-quarters of them are in the U.S. lawfully or hold U.S. citizenship. The remaining quarter are unauthorized immigrants. The latest estimates from Pew Research Center show that there were 11.1 million unauthorized immigrants in the country in 2014, a figure that has remained essentially stable since 2009.
Source: Published originally on PewResearchCenter, Americans less concerned than a decade ago over immigrants' impact on workforce, by Lee Rainie and Anna Brown, October 7, 2016.
Growth in Hispanic-Owned Businesses Outpacing Total Business Creation in U.S., California, and Inland Southern California
A new analysis of recently available Census data finds that businesses owned by Hispanics are being created at a significantly faster pace than ‘total' businesses in the United States, California and the Inland Southern California region – bucking a trend of diminished business formation during the recession and post-recession years.
The study, released today by the UC Riverside Center for Economic Forecasting and Development at the School of Business Administration, examines data from the U.S Census Bureau's newest Survey of Business Owners, which is published once every five years and provides the most current snapshot of the nation's proprietors. The most recent survey includes data on business owners through 2012 and was released this past December.
The new analysis finds that from 2007 to 2012, the number of Hispanic-owned businesses grew 46.3% in the U.S., 43.9% in California, and a whopping 50.6% in Inland Southern California. Comparatively, the rate of growth among ‘all businesses' was much slower: 3.4% in the U.S., 5.0% in California, and 8.0% in Inland Southern California. With this growth, Hispanic-owned businesses now comprise over one-third of all businesses in Inland Southern California (36.9%), nearly one-quarter (23.4%) of all California businesses and 12.2% of all U.S businesses.
The upsurge helps the share of Hispanic business ownership converge closer to the share of Hispanics employed in the workforce at all three levels. Hispanics comprise 46.2% of the labor force in Inland Southern California, 35.3% in California, and 15.5% in the United States.
“For years, Hispanics have made up a large and growing share of the population and workforce of the nation, state, and inland region,” said Director of the Center for Economic Forecasting and Development Christopher Thornberg, one of the report's lead authors. “As a measure of socio-economic advancement, it is an important and positive trend to see proprietorships increasing and a healthier balance developing between Hispanic business owners and workers.”
The last time this Census data was published, Hispanic-owned businesses comprised 8.6% of all businesses in the U.S., 17.1% in California, and 26.5% in Inland Southern California.
While growing impressively in number, Hispanic-owned businesses in Inland Southern California have not kept pace with their counterparts at the state and national level when it comes to revenue or employment growth. In Inland Southern California, revenues generated by Hispanic-owned businesses increased just 5.8% from 2007 to 2012, while they jumped 23.1% in California, and 35.1% in the United States.
Over the same period, hiring at Hispanic-owned businesses in the Inland region declined by 9.2% while it expanded at the state (12.7%) and national (22.1%) level. While job growth at the state and national level bucked a recessionary trend of falling employment among all businesses, the decline locally was likely tied to the severity of the recession in the inland region.
Despite growth on many fronts, Hispanic-owned businesses account for a disproportionately low share of total revenues and employment across all three geographies with the disparity intensifying at the regional level. In Inland Southern California, they make up nearly 40% of all businesses but generate just 9.1% of total revenues and employ only 10.3% of the local workforce. In California, Hispanic-owned businesses comprise 23.4% of all businesses but only generate 6.5% of all revenues and employ just 8.0% of the state's workforce; in the nation they make up 12.2% of all U.S. businesses, but generate 4.0% of total national revenues and employ 4.2% of the nation's employed population.
“The disparities in revenue and employment should improve as these businesses mature,” Thornberg said. Indeed, according to the analysis, many Hispanic-owned businesses have formed within the past five years and are relatively young enterprises. While some of the disparities may be related to their early stage of development, the authors also note that in Inland Southern California, Hispanic-owned businesses may need to reevaluate their business strategies in order to improve revenue and employment outcomes.
Source: UCR Today, Growth in Hispanic-Owned Businesses Outpacing Total Business Creation in U.S., California, and Inland Southern Californiaby Sarah Nightingale, April 13, 2016.
Hispanics are more optimistic about paying for college
Most Hispanics in the United States think higher education is affordable despite soaring tuition costs and an ever-expanding student debt bubble, as reported by Fusion.net.
According to a new Gallup-Lumina Foundation study, 51 percent of Hispanics think “education beyond high school is affordable to anyone in this country who needs it.”
Just 19 percent of blacks and 17 percent of whites feel the same.
So why are Hispanics way more optimistic than their white and black peers about the affordability of postsecondary education?
“This is a population of folks who are very hungry for education and see it as a pathway to a better life,” Brandon Busteed, the Gallup lead on the study and executive director of Gallup Education, told Fusion.
One potential theory Busteed offers is that there's a large immigrant population in the Hispanic community and first-generation immigrants see education as the only pathway to a good job.
Another is that data indicates adults without a postsecondary credential are more likely to think college graduates are well-prepared for the workforce than those who hold a credential, and since Hispanic adults are less likely to hold a credential than their white peers, they may have more optimism about college.
Still, whites, on average, have more than nine times the wealth of Hispanics, so it wouldn't be unreasonable to assume that they would have a more difficult time affording college. Yet Hispanic students are less likely to take out student loans and more likely to work, according to the Institute for Higher Education Policy. Latino students are also more likely to attend community colleges, which often have relatively low tuition, close to home, which allows students to work and cut out room and board costs.
The makeup of colleges is changing as more young Hispanics pursue higher education.
Between 1976 and 2011, the percentage of college students who identified as Hispanic rose from 4 percent to 14 percent, according to National Center for Education Statistics data. In 2012, seven out of 10 Latino high school graduates enrolled in college, according to the Pew Research Center, which was higher than the enrollment rate for students identifying as white or black.
The survey found that most Americans think colleges need to do more to prepare students for success in the working world, and that they need to do more to serve an increasingly diverse array of students. Virtually all adults in the United States think high schoolers need to go on to college or technical school to be successful in today's economy.
“We as country have got to get behind this Hispanic population that is coming to college with very high expectations for it and valuing it,” Busteed said, “and make sure we're supporting them in the right ways.”
Source: Originally published on Fusion.net asHispanics are way more optimistic about paying for college than everyone else, by Emily DeRuy, April 17, 2015.
California farms added workers in 2014, even amid drought
The state had 6,000 more farmworkers in 2014 than in 2013. The shift toward more lucrative crops requires more labor.
Despite the drought, the number of workers employed in California's agricultural industry rose to its highest level in at least 24 years, as many farmers shifted toward labor-intensive, permanent crops, according to the latest state and federal statistics.
The employment figures paint a more complicated picture than the message from some state officials and agricultural employers who publicly lament the drought's impact on farmworkers. For example, Gov. Jerry Brown last month told a national television audience that “farmworkers who are at the very low end of the economic scale here are out of work.”
The state's agricultural workforce would have grown faster last year if not for drought – but it still grew, several farm economists said.
“There's no doubt in the data that the impact of the drought … has been smaller than we expected, surprisingly so,” said Jeffrey Michael, director of the Center for Business and Policy Research at the University of the Pacific.
The effect of the drought on California agriculture and its workforce is a sensitive topic. Agriculture takes 80 percent of the water used by people in California, though its share falls to 40 percent of the state's supply when the water used for fish and other environmental purposes is taken into account.
Brown largely excluded farmers from an executive order mandating that urban customers reduce water consumption by 25 percent this year. But hundreds of farmers in the Central Valley have been told to expect no water deliveries from the federal government, and hundreds more have seen their water rights curtailed by the state.
Largely because of a lack of water, farmers last year fallowed roughly 500,000 acres, satellite photos and federal statistics indicate. That's equivalent to more than 5 percent of the state's irrigated cropland.
Most land fallowed was devoted to crops such as rice and wheat that do not require a high number of workers, Michael and other economists said. Meanwhile, fruit and berry production, which often requires more workers, increased.
Overall, there was more farm work available in California last year than during any other year at least since 1990, when modern record-keeping began, according to the state Employment Development Department. And hired farmworkers collectively made more money, too, separate federal data show.
California farms employed about 417,000 workers, on average, each month during 2014, up by 6,000 from 2013, state figures show. Farm employment increased by about 30,000 from 2004 to 2014.
- 417,000 Average number of California farmworkers last year
- 6,000 Growth in farmworkers from 2013 to 2014
- 30,000 Growth in farmworkers from 2004 to 2014
With average pay of roughly $9 per hour, front-line farm employees are among the lowest-paid workers in California. But hired farmworker wages and salaries rose 2 percent to $6.5 billion from 2013 to 2014, after adjusting for inflation, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Several labor economists said they were surprised by the trend. A widely cited UC Davis report released in July predicted that the drought would result in “17,100 jobs lost” in 2014.
Daniel Sumner, a UC Davis agricultural economist who co-authored the report, said, “I'm not going to stand by that number and say, ‘Gee we must have nailed it.' ”
But, he and others said, the state would have added thousands more farm jobs if not for the drought. Put another way, the farm labor market could have grown faster if more water were available. Had fallowed acres contained crops, workers would have been needed to sustain them.
“You cannot grow crops on half a million acres with no labor,” said Richard Howitt, a UC Davis agricultural economist and another report co-author.
Fields fallowed last year mostly had been used to grow wheat, rice, hay, corn and cotton, Michael said, citing USDA statistics. Acreage devoted to nuts, wine grapes and some vegetables increased.
“There's still a lot of labor-intensive crops … that are keeping people busy,” said Lupe Sandoval, managing director of the California Farm Labor Contractor Association. “We still have a lot of strawberries, we still have a lot of grapes. … The cherry harvest is just getting underway. That's three to four weeks of pretty intensive labor.”
Marc Grossman, spokesman for the United Farm Workers in California, said workers in his union have been in high demand during the drought. Most union workers toil in strawberry, wine grape and vegetable fields. “Union members have been working in the last few years more hours rather than less,” he said.
Employment patterns vary from place to place – and even from farm to farm – across California. The data “doesn't mean people didn't lose their jobs,” Sumner said.
Mike Daddow, a fourth-generation rice grower in southern Sutter County, is fallowing 150 of his 650 acres for the second year in a row. He employs six workers this year instead of the usual 10.
Three of his employees are part-timers, and normally “you really push the overtime,” and guys get a lot more hours, he said. Not last year, or this year. “The three part-time guys had shorter hours (last year) and, of course, no overtime.”
Several labor economists said they could not yet predict how the drought would effect employment during 2015. Farms employed about 5,000 fewer workers during the first three months of 2015 as compared to the same period of 2014, state figures show. Hiring tends to peak during the summer.
“I would hesitate to make the kind of predictions we did in the past, because clearly it didn't come true in 2014,” Michael said.
Source: Originally published on The Sacramento Bee as California farms added workers in 2014, even amid drought by Phillip Reese and Dale Kasler, May 19, 2015.